What makes you think your tests are error-free?
Nothing. I don't have any confidence in my ability to write error-free tests.
TDD and throw-away code
If I had started with test-first approach, I would have saved half a day or so.
TDD provides focus
TDD helps me avoid mental rabit trails of nice-to-haves and performance improvements.
How I know when I'm done
When I work on a project that relies on manual verification, I'm never confident. I never feel sure of the work I'm doing.
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TDD is slower the same way a drop cloth makes you slower
Painting without a drop cloth may be faster, but the hours of clean up outweigh savings.
Driving with your hands at 10 and 2
Maybe strict TDD isn't necessary for experts, but it's still useful to learn.
It's the granularity that matters
It's not the red/green/refactor cycle. The important thing is working in short test/code or code/test cycles.
Air bags vs statistics
An airbag broke my arm. BDUF would have saved time. Test-first wasted effort. Should abandon these?
Which skill is more important: Testing, or debugging?
One of these skills, if you're good at it, diminishes the need for the other other.